Iran into the Conflict

This guy over at Haaretz says that Iran is behind the rockets from the north of Israel, which is probably true.  He also says Hizbullah (funded by Iran) was in on it as well.   

This Just In

Here's an article sent along by Bryan Fenster.  In that inimitable way they do, the Economist breaks down in clear-sighted prose the historical context of the incidents in Gaza right now, and how it fits into the general narrative.  An excellent read.  

PA

The future of the PA is uncertain as Abbas' term nears its end.  Some say it is likely he will remain at the helm until elections can be held.  It is uncertain whether his more moderate Fatah party will retain power -- making negotiations with the West more likely -- or whether a Hamas candidate may win popular support.  

. . . part 3

The NY Times is painting a pretty grim portrait.  UN Food Relief has ended deliveries into Gaza after the death of (another) food-truck driver, claiming the most minimum requisite security is not there.  All the while, peace negotiations seem to be deadlocked, though the UN Security Council may be close to a cease fire resolution sponsored by many Arab states -- albeit one that may make a US veto likely.     

Shit! part 2

Heres a BBC rundown on the rockets.  Hizbullah, they say, has a much more powerful arsenal to attack with than the rockets that were fired, and would likely have used them if they wanted to stage another theater to the north. Also a factor is Hizbullah's political situation; now a bona fide partner in Lebanese government, they likely would not want to jeopardize that status.  

But, the BBC says, "not a leaf can move in southern Lebanon without its people knowing about it."  Perhaps they were complicit, were their finger not on the trigger.    

The BBC also points out the ease with which just about any small extremist group could smuggle missiles into and fire from southern Lebanon.  There are 400,000 Palestinian refugees in the area who claim Israel as their homeland.  

Shit!

Three rockets were fired into Israel from Lebanon in the north.  Israel responded with five mortar shells.  

This comes after Lebanese Information Minister Tarek Mitri told reporters the other day he did not think Hizbullah would fire at this time.  

He did say that Hizbullah was not involved and some in Israeli intelligence believe it is the work of Palestinian groups in the region.  Border patrols have been stepped up by UN, Israeli and Lebanese forces.  

The Daily Star says that Hizbullah has more than 40,000 rockets "ready to be fired at Israel," should the situation escalate.  Some feel that Israel's mortar response could push Hizbullah -- whether they fired or not -- into a response.  

Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah sounded a defiant tone towards Israel and declared that "all options are on the table."

Despite the fierce talk, I don't foresee armed conflict between Israel and Hizbullah right now. The situation in Gaza is probably weakening Israeli forces to a far weaker extent than would prevent them from leveling southern Lebanon should the need arise, and Hizbullah and Lebanon in general probably know this.  

European Sentiments

The CS Monitor reports that pro-Arab sentiment throughout Europe, once dominated by French diplomacy, is dwindling.  

Support for the Palestinian plight, once seen as a struggle for independence and a right of return, is now seen in "shallower emotional and humanitarian grounds . . . forgetting the old issues of substance and Israeli occupation," said one European diplomat.  

Among other factors, many contribute the decline to the friction caused throughout much of Europe in the past decade or so brought on by abrupt increases of Arab and Muslim immigration into Europe, as well as a reaction to 9/11.  

Some are rehashing the "Clash of Civilizations" theory put out by Samuel Huntington, as if this were an inevitability. For those unschooled, please read Huntington's 1993 Foreign Affairs article "The Clash of Civilizations."

I think the thing to remember is that there are moderate groups and extreme groups in every civilization, and there is a fundamental common humanity that need not clash; this is the basis of diplomacy.  

Anyway, read the CSM article, an excellent piece on the worldview of Gaza.