White Smoke

The UN is accusing Israel of illegal use of phosphorous munitions, saying such bombs hit their facility today. In the facility were thousands of tons of food and medicine aid.

Human Rights Watch says it has witnessed "dozens and dozens" of such bombs used in heavily civilian-populated areas.

The Israeli army says it uses all weapons legally.

The BBC put it guardedly, saying "there is no way independently to explain the contradiction between both sides' reports, as Israel has prevented international journalists from entering Gaza since its offensive began."

This is Not News

Condoleezza Rice and Tzivi Livni signed today a "Memorandum of Understanding" concerning the prevention of the supply of arms and related materials to terrorist groups. Whoopity-doo.

On Day One

Obama told USA Today that he plans, "on day one," to appoint a special team of diplomats to tackle the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Obama acknowledged the issue is interwoven into the politics of the entire Middle East, signaling a departure from Bush's strategy, which tended to isolate the issue.

More Talk

Diplomatic efforts to end the war in Gaza have intensified yet again, but I'd put my money on Israel stopping whenever she feels ready.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon is in the West Bank, Israeli Defense Minister Tzivi Lipni is in Washington, and new Arab leadership meetings are being held in Kuwait and Qatar.

Egyptian and Saudi Arabian officials declined the Doha, Qatar talks and are headed to Kuwait -- a sign of a major rift in the Arab world, say some.

The leadership in Doha recognizes Palestinian political factions Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), whereas Egypt, Saudi Arabia (both meeting in Kuwait) and Western nations have sidelined such factions in cease fire talks, seeking to delegitimize the groups. The former want to condemn Israel, show solidarity with Palestine and keep the US and the West out of the Middle East; the latter seek to find a so-called moderate solution and keep Iran -- Hamas' main sponsor -- out of their region.

Concrete Jungle

Israel pushed deep into the heart of Gaza City today, hitting a UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) building where hundreds were taking shelter, though only three were confirmed injured.  Also hit was a foreign press office and a hospital.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert expressed regret, but told reporters that a Hamas militant fired from beside the compound and then ran in for cover.  Ban Ki-Moon, however, said Defense Minister Ehud Barack told him the shelling of the compound was a "grave mistake."  Ban is "outraged" at Israel.  

UNRWA officials told the NY Times the IDF were given GPS coordinates for all UN buildings.  

The heavy urban raids come as negotiations in Egypt are stepping up, reports just about every major paper (FT), but they have also described the peace talks as "stepping up" every day of this conflict.  

In the midst of the aggression, the European Commission has canceled plans to increase economic and diplomatic relations with Israel.   

Lebanon

Lebanon appears ready to enter into any dialouge in the Arab world that may lead to a cease fire, also expressing their commitment to Resolution 1701, the cease fire between them and Israel in the aftermath of their 2006 conflict.

Abdullah

Suadi Arabian King Abdullah supports the Egyptian peace talks and urged both sides to come to the table to stop the fighting. Meanwhile, reports the Arab News, cemeteries in Gaza are increasingly over-filling with nowhere to bury the newly dead.

A US ship carrying ammunitions from a Greek port to a US warehouse in Israel was canceled after Athens objected to the arrangement, in place before the war in Gaza, says the Pentagon.

Towards Gaza City

Israel continues to push further into Gaza City. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon arrived today, though diplomatic efforts to reach a cease fire still seem slow to come. Previous attempts at an Egyptian-led cease fire proposal were side-lined by bickering within Hamas, reports the NY Times, where Gazan Hamas officials wanted a cease fire but saw opposition from their Syrian counterparts.

Support for the effort runs high in Israel, where 10 soldiers and three civilians were killed by Hamas rocket fire. The Palestinian death toll stands just below 1,000.

All the while, Israel says that after two weeks of heavy bombardment, their main objectives remain unfulfilled.

Osama bin Laden released a voice recording calling for jihad against Israel, his first such recording since May.

Peace Talks

The Khaleej Times reports on the ongoing Egyptian cease fire talks, saying that while Egypt is eager to end the fighting and Israel has shown interest in signing the current plan, Hamas leadership from Damascus and Gaza are having a tough time coming together and signing the agreement.  

The Cairo talks involve five Hamas delegates, three from Damascus and two from Gaza.  

Meanwhile, Qatar has requested an emergency Arab League summit to find a solution to the conflict, to which no Arab countries have as of yet signed on to.  Some are afraid that the meeting will prove ineffective, making Arab states look helpless, while others can't get passed certain divisions in the Arab world, a Reuters report makes clear.  

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are opposed to Hamas militants, while Syria and Qatar are sympathetic to them.  Egypt sees Qatar's announcement as a means of embarrassing or undermining talks in Cairo.

Protesters in Syria, Yemen and Iran have excoriated Egypt's refusal to open their border crossings with Gaza to allow civilians to flee the war torn area.  Egypt won't do it without support from the PA government in the West Bank.  

From the North

Shots were fired at Israeli troops stationed on its northern border with Jordan yesterday, reports Al Jazeera.  The shooters identities or affiliations remain ambiguous, and Jordanian officials deny any shots were fired.  

Jordan and Israel signed a peace agreement in 1994 and the border they share has largely been calm since.  

Phase 3

Israeli air strikes intensified as ground troops pushed into the suburbs of Gaza City, reports the BBC, and Hamas rocket fire into Israel continues.  

PA President Mahmoud Abbas decried Israel for attempting to "wipe out" his people.  The PA used to hold power in Gaza before elections in 2006 put Hamas in power, and many predicted the outcome of the current conflict would put Abbas's PA back in power there.  

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon is headed to Gaza to push for an immediate truce.    

Thus Spoke Walt

For a nice sampling of a variety of viewpoints on the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, with all its vitriol, see famed co-author of The Israel Lobby and professor of International Relations at Harvard University Stephen Walt's recent blog on ForeignPolicy.com, in which he imagines a different outcome of the Six Day War, and all of the comments that follow.  

Inexcusable

Some very dim-witted Frenchmen attacked a synagogue north of Paris over the weekend.  The attackers threw "petrol bombs" into the synagogue, reports the BBC, a week after a similar attack on another French synagogue.  

The protests starkly illustrate a strain of anti-semitism that blinds some protesters to the realities of the international system.  Diasporan Jews have about as much to do with Israeli foreign policy as I do with American foreign policy.  Attacking a French synagogue because of Israeli actions in the Gaza strip is nothing if not blatantly racist.  I imagine if any westerner were to attack a mosque because of the act of a Muslim terrorist, they would be deemed racist and condemned, rightfully, by all parties involved.  

Protesting in the streets of cities across the world allows one's voice to be heard, and though it may seem ineffective, it is far more justifiable and relevant to their cause than violent attacks aimed at unaffiliated parties -- as unjustifiable as Katyusha rockets into Israel or Israeli cluster bombs in Gaza city.   

Secrets

For those of you who missed this very interesting NY Times article yesterday, it appears that President Bush declined secret Israeli requests for bunker-busting bombs and permission to fly over Iraq for an attack on Iranian nuclear sites last year.  Bush told Israeli officials he had initiated covert operations on the ground aimed at dismantling Iranian nuclear ambitions from within and that an overt attack would not be necessary.  The report questions whether Israel had plans to carry out the attack or was seeking to engage Bush in more aggressive planning before he left office.  

Bush was continually briefed on the options for an overt American air strike on the Iranian nuclear targets but never told the Pentagon to move beyond contingency planning.  Some in the administration, led Defense Secretary Robert Gates, warned such an attack would be ineffective, likely result in the expulsion of international inspectors and possibly spark a broader Middle East war.  

The Israeli requests came after a National Intelligence Estimate (N.I.E.) from last year that painted a very calm picture of Iran's enrichment program and progress towards nuclear weapons manufacturing, but the report was viewed skeptically by almost everyone in the Bush administration and Israel.  

The covert operations, questions of their efficacy, questions of how they may or may not interfere with efforts to engage Iran in talks, as well as Israel's willingness to settle for such a plan will all be handed off to Barack Obama on the 20th, adding to an already staggering list of problems he will be confronting.  

The article is a fascinating read, one of those rare glimpses into the secret world of international negotiations and covert operations most often not revealed until decades after a conflict has cooled.  Certainly, check that out.  

As Ugly as Reality

Israel has slowed its air assault on Gaza overnight, though ground forces have been stepped up, reports the BBC.  Reserve forces have been sent into Gaza via ground.  While Prime Minister Ehud Olmert denies any increase in ground fighting, some reports claim reservists are being sent in to secure already won areas while front-line troops move further inward.  With no international reporters allowed on the ground, such reports can neither be confirmed nor denied. 

A military spokesman said that while reservists are being called in mostly to provide relief for engaged soldiers, this does not signal an escalation in ground fighting.  Forces in Israel continue training in the case of an expanded ground invasion.  

Olmert says Israel is nearing its goals in Gaza, and some claim an Egyptian-brokered cease fire is progressing, though we've heard this before.  

Meanwhile, the Washington Post seems to sound a more alarming note, saying that with the strong back-up from the reserve units, Israel is bracing for what may be the "fiercest fighting yet" as they push into the major population centers in the so-called "phase three" of the operation.  

Talks in Cairo hinge on Israeli calls for an Egyptian monitor at the Gaza-Egypt border to ensure that no more weapons are smuggled into Gaza -- a request which Egypt has so far balked at.  

An all-out push into Gaza City will mean increased death tolls and heavy destruction on both sides.  The question seems to be whether or not Israel should use the position they've gained in weakening Hamas to negotiate (yet another) cease fire, or should move to debilitate Hamas to such an extent they cannot fire rockets, if not wipe them out completely -- a question that Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barack, both of whom are vying to be the next PM, disagree on.  

In a strictly military-strategic perspective, as ugly as it may sound, I think their only option is to push ahead.  Any cease fire will prove as transient as any in the past.  True, the elimination of Hamas will by no means mean peace in the Middle East, but it will reduce Iranian influence in the area and restore a (perhaps only slightly) longer peace in the area from which to build. Israel's reputation is as bad as it will be -- a further offensive will probably not change that.  

One note to add -- if any traces of phosphorous munitions are found in an area like Gaza City, that will and ought to be the end of Israel's bargaining position.  UNHRC has already declared Israeli actions have "resulted in massive violations of human rights."

Concision

In what is perhaps the shortest news article I have ever seen, Hamas claims to have hit an Israeli Air Force base outside of Tel Aviv today with rockets fired from the Gaza strip.  As Josh Nanus points out, this might be the first time Hamas' has targeted something other than defenseless civilians.  

Op-Ed

Here's an op-ed in US News & World Report arguing why the military strike in Gaza may be counterproductive to Israeli interests.  It explains more explicitly a statement made in an earlier post by Norman's International regarding the effect the strike will have once a cease fire is reached and it's time to come to the negotiating table.  

In sum, ". . . the consequence is not the pacification of the target population but an intensification of violence."

Or, maybe not.  Here's an Op-Ed that says, while unfortunate, there is literally no other option --Israel must respond with overwhelming force if anything is to change; if Israel is to continue existing, something has to change.  

Unaided

UN aid has been suspended after Israeli fire hit a UN convoy and killed two fork-lift operators with the UN.  Operations will continue once Israel can guarantee security, says the UN.

Unworkable

Israel released a statement on what they called the 'unworkable' U.N. cease fire proposal, saying "the IDF will continue to act in order to obtain the objectives of the operation -- to bring about a change in the security situation in the south of the country -- this in accordance with the plans that have been approved upon embarking on this mission."

Sounds a lot like they're moving on to phase 3, as earlier predicted by Norman's International.

The Beat Goes On

Showing the impotency of the institution, the U.N.'s declared cease fire was ignored by both sides of the conflict in Gaza today.  Israel continued on with a fresh wave of aerial bombardments and Hamas continued firing rockets into southern Israel.  

Questions of war crimes on Israel's part were raised in the U.N. on account of an International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reporting that claims IDF forces ignored the emergency medical needs for civilians required by international law.  In perhaps the only good news to come from the discourse, the U.N. has demanded human rights monitors be deployed to the area to monitor the situation.  

Israel continued it's brief window of calm to let in aid this morning, during which time Hamas fired an undetermined number of rockets into Israel, who returned fire.  

14 of the 15 U.N. security members signed on to the cease fire demands, with one abstaining.  You guessed it -- the United States.