As Ugly as Reality

Israel has slowed its air assault on Gaza overnight, though ground forces have been stepped up, reports the BBC.  Reserve forces have been sent into Gaza via ground.  While Prime Minister Ehud Olmert denies any increase in ground fighting, some reports claim reservists are being sent in to secure already won areas while front-line troops move further inward.  With no international reporters allowed on the ground, such reports can neither be confirmed nor denied. 

A military spokesman said that while reservists are being called in mostly to provide relief for engaged soldiers, this does not signal an escalation in ground fighting.  Forces in Israel continue training in the case of an expanded ground invasion.  

Olmert says Israel is nearing its goals in Gaza, and some claim an Egyptian-brokered cease fire is progressing, though we've heard this before.  

Meanwhile, the Washington Post seems to sound a more alarming note, saying that with the strong back-up from the reserve units, Israel is bracing for what may be the "fiercest fighting yet" as they push into the major population centers in the so-called "phase three" of the operation.  

Talks in Cairo hinge on Israeli calls for an Egyptian monitor at the Gaza-Egypt border to ensure that no more weapons are smuggled into Gaza -- a request which Egypt has so far balked at.  

An all-out push into Gaza City will mean increased death tolls and heavy destruction on both sides.  The question seems to be whether or not Israel should use the position they've gained in weakening Hamas to negotiate (yet another) cease fire, or should move to debilitate Hamas to such an extent they cannot fire rockets, if not wipe them out completely -- a question that Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barack, both of whom are vying to be the next PM, disagree on.  

In a strictly military-strategic perspective, as ugly as it may sound, I think their only option is to push ahead.  Any cease fire will prove as transient as any in the past.  True, the elimination of Hamas will by no means mean peace in the Middle East, but it will reduce Iranian influence in the area and restore a (perhaps only slightly) longer peace in the area from which to build. Israel's reputation is as bad as it will be -- a further offensive will probably not change that.  

One note to add -- if any traces of phosphorous munitions are found in an area like Gaza City, that will and ought to be the end of Israel's bargaining position.  UNHRC has already declared Israeli actions have "resulted in massive violations of human rights."