White Smoke

The UN is accusing Israel of illegal use of phosphorous munitions, saying such bombs hit their facility today. In the facility were thousands of tons of food and medicine aid.

Human Rights Watch says it has witnessed "dozens and dozens" of such bombs used in heavily civilian-populated areas.

The Israeli army says it uses all weapons legally.

The BBC put it guardedly, saying "there is no way independently to explain the contradiction between both sides' reports, as Israel has prevented international journalists from entering Gaza since its offensive began."

On Day One

Obama told USA Today that he plans, "on day one," to appoint a special team of diplomats to tackle the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Obama acknowledged the issue is interwoven into the politics of the entire Middle East, signaling a departure from Bush's strategy, which tended to isolate the issue.

More Talk

Diplomatic efforts to end the war in Gaza have intensified yet again, but I'd put my money on Israel stopping whenever she feels ready.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon is in the West Bank, Israeli Defense Minister Tzivi Lipni is in Washington, and new Arab leadership meetings are being held in Kuwait and Qatar.

Egyptian and Saudi Arabian officials declined the Doha, Qatar talks and are headed to Kuwait -- a sign of a major rift in the Arab world, say some.

The leadership in Doha recognizes Palestinian political factions Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), whereas Egypt, Saudi Arabia (both meeting in Kuwait) and Western nations have sidelined such factions in cease fire talks, seeking to delegitimize the groups. The former want to condemn Israel, show solidarity with Palestine and keep the US and the West out of the Middle East; the latter seek to find a so-called moderate solution and keep Iran -- Hamas' main sponsor -- out of their region.

Concrete Jungle

Israel pushed deep into the heart of Gaza City today, hitting a UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) building where hundreds were taking shelter, though only three were confirmed injured.  Also hit was a foreign press office and a hospital.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert expressed regret, but told reporters that a Hamas militant fired from beside the compound and then ran in for cover.  Ban Ki-Moon, however, said Defense Minister Ehud Barack told him the shelling of the compound was a "grave mistake."  Ban is "outraged" at Israel.  

UNRWA officials told the NY Times the IDF were given GPS coordinates for all UN buildings.  

The heavy urban raids come as negotiations in Egypt are stepping up, reports just about every major paper (FT), but they have also described the peace talks as "stepping up" every day of this conflict.  

In the midst of the aggression, the European Commission has canceled plans to increase economic and diplomatic relations with Israel.   

Towards Gaza City

Israel continues to push further into Gaza City. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon arrived today, though diplomatic efforts to reach a cease fire still seem slow to come. Previous attempts at an Egyptian-led cease fire proposal were side-lined by bickering within Hamas, reports the NY Times, where Gazan Hamas officials wanted a cease fire but saw opposition from their Syrian counterparts.

Support for the effort runs high in Israel, where 10 soldiers and three civilians were killed by Hamas rocket fire. The Palestinian death toll stands just below 1,000.

All the while, Israel says that after two weeks of heavy bombardment, their main objectives remain unfulfilled.

Osama bin Laden released a voice recording calling for jihad against Israel, his first such recording since May.

Peace Talks

The Khaleej Times reports on the ongoing Egyptian cease fire talks, saying that while Egypt is eager to end the fighting and Israel has shown interest in signing the current plan, Hamas leadership from Damascus and Gaza are having a tough time coming together and signing the agreement.  

The Cairo talks involve five Hamas delegates, three from Damascus and two from Gaza.  

Meanwhile, Qatar has requested an emergency Arab League summit to find a solution to the conflict, to which no Arab countries have as of yet signed on to.  Some are afraid that the meeting will prove ineffective, making Arab states look helpless, while others can't get passed certain divisions in the Arab world, a Reuters report makes clear.  

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are opposed to Hamas militants, while Syria and Qatar are sympathetic to them.  Egypt sees Qatar's announcement as a means of embarrassing or undermining talks in Cairo.

Protesters in Syria, Yemen and Iran have excoriated Egypt's refusal to open their border crossings with Gaza to allow civilians to flee the war torn area.  Egypt won't do it without support from the PA government in the West Bank.  

Phase 3

Israeli air strikes intensified as ground troops pushed into the suburbs of Gaza City, reports the BBC, and Hamas rocket fire into Israel continues.  

PA President Mahmoud Abbas decried Israel for attempting to "wipe out" his people.  The PA used to hold power in Gaza before elections in 2006 put Hamas in power, and many predicted the outcome of the current conflict would put Abbas's PA back in power there.  

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon is headed to Gaza to push for an immediate truce.    

Thus Spoke Walt

For a nice sampling of a variety of viewpoints on the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, with all its vitriol, see famed co-author of The Israel Lobby and professor of International Relations at Harvard University Stephen Walt's recent blog on ForeignPolicy.com, in which he imagines a different outcome of the Six Day War, and all of the comments that follow.  

Inexcusable

Some very dim-witted Frenchmen attacked a synagogue north of Paris over the weekend.  The attackers threw "petrol bombs" into the synagogue, reports the BBC, a week after a similar attack on another French synagogue.  

The protests starkly illustrate a strain of anti-semitism that blinds some protesters to the realities of the international system.  Diasporan Jews have about as much to do with Israeli foreign policy as I do with American foreign policy.  Attacking a French synagogue because of Israeli actions in the Gaza strip is nothing if not blatantly racist.  I imagine if any westerner were to attack a mosque because of the act of a Muslim terrorist, they would be deemed racist and condemned, rightfully, by all parties involved.  

Protesting in the streets of cities across the world allows one's voice to be heard, and though it may seem ineffective, it is far more justifiable and relevant to their cause than violent attacks aimed at unaffiliated parties -- as unjustifiable as Katyusha rockets into Israel or Israeli cluster bombs in Gaza city.   

As Ugly as Reality

Israel has slowed its air assault on Gaza overnight, though ground forces have been stepped up, reports the BBC.  Reserve forces have been sent into Gaza via ground.  While Prime Minister Ehud Olmert denies any increase in ground fighting, some reports claim reservists are being sent in to secure already won areas while front-line troops move further inward.  With no international reporters allowed on the ground, such reports can neither be confirmed nor denied. 

A military spokesman said that while reservists are being called in mostly to provide relief for engaged soldiers, this does not signal an escalation in ground fighting.  Forces in Israel continue training in the case of an expanded ground invasion.  

Olmert says Israel is nearing its goals in Gaza, and some claim an Egyptian-brokered cease fire is progressing, though we've heard this before.  

Meanwhile, the Washington Post seems to sound a more alarming note, saying that with the strong back-up from the reserve units, Israel is bracing for what may be the "fiercest fighting yet" as they push into the major population centers in the so-called "phase three" of the operation.  

Talks in Cairo hinge on Israeli calls for an Egyptian monitor at the Gaza-Egypt border to ensure that no more weapons are smuggled into Gaza -- a request which Egypt has so far balked at.  

An all-out push into Gaza City will mean increased death tolls and heavy destruction on both sides.  The question seems to be whether or not Israel should use the position they've gained in weakening Hamas to negotiate (yet another) cease fire, or should move to debilitate Hamas to such an extent they cannot fire rockets, if not wipe them out completely -- a question that Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barack, both of whom are vying to be the next PM, disagree on.  

In a strictly military-strategic perspective, as ugly as it may sound, I think their only option is to push ahead.  Any cease fire will prove as transient as any in the past.  True, the elimination of Hamas will by no means mean peace in the Middle East, but it will reduce Iranian influence in the area and restore a (perhaps only slightly) longer peace in the area from which to build. Israel's reputation is as bad as it will be -- a further offensive will probably not change that.  

One note to add -- if any traces of phosphorous munitions are found in an area like Gaza City, that will and ought to be the end of Israel's bargaining position.  UNHRC has already declared Israeli actions have "resulted in massive violations of human rights."

Concision

In what is perhaps the shortest news article I have ever seen, Hamas claims to have hit an Israeli Air Force base outside of Tel Aviv today with rockets fired from the Gaza strip.  As Josh Nanus points out, this might be the first time Hamas' has targeted something other than defenseless civilians.  

The Beat Goes On

Showing the impotency of the institution, the U.N.'s declared cease fire was ignored by both sides of the conflict in Gaza today.  Israel continued on with a fresh wave of aerial bombardments and Hamas continued firing rockets into southern Israel.  

Questions of war crimes on Israel's part were raised in the U.N. on account of an International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reporting that claims IDF forces ignored the emergency medical needs for civilians required by international law.  In perhaps the only good news to come from the discourse, the U.N. has demanded human rights monitors be deployed to the area to monitor the situation.  

Israel continued it's brief window of calm to let in aid this morning, during which time Hamas fired an undetermined number of rockets into Israel, who returned fire.  

14 of the 15 U.N. security members signed on to the cease fire demands, with one abstaining.  You guessed it -- the United States.  

PA

The future of the PA is uncertain as Abbas' term nears its end.  Some say it is likely he will remain at the helm until elections can be held.  It is uncertain whether his more moderate Fatah party will retain power -- making negotiations with the West more likely -- or whether a Hamas candidate may win popular support.  

. . . part 3

The NY Times is painting a pretty grim portrait.  UN Food Relief has ended deliveries into Gaza after the death of (another) food-truck driver, claiming the most minimum requisite security is not there.  All the while, peace negotiations seem to be deadlocked, though the UN Security Council may be close to a cease fire resolution sponsored by many Arab states -- albeit one that may make a US veto likely.     

European Sentiments

The CS Monitor reports that pro-Arab sentiment throughout Europe, once dominated by French diplomacy, is dwindling.  

Support for the Palestinian plight, once seen as a struggle for independence and a right of return, is now seen in "shallower emotional and humanitarian grounds . . . forgetting the old issues of substance and Israeli occupation," said one European diplomat.  

Among other factors, many contribute the decline to the friction caused throughout much of Europe in the past decade or so brought on by abrupt increases of Arab and Muslim immigration into Europe, as well as a reaction to 9/11.  

Some are rehashing the "Clash of Civilizations" theory put out by Samuel Huntington, as if this were an inevitability. For those unschooled, please read Huntington's 1993 Foreign Affairs article "The Clash of Civilizations."

I think the thing to remember is that there are moderate groups and extreme groups in every civilization, and there is a fundamental common humanity that need not clash; this is the basis of diplomacy.  

Anyway, read the CSM article, an excellent piece on the worldview of Gaza.    

View from the Left

Here's how Tariq Ali sees the situation in Gaza. Tariq Ali is editor of the New Left Review, a widely published writer and human rights activist.

Tariq says that Israel and other powers in the region sought to subvert the democratic process in an effort to keep Hamas from rising to power in Gaza. When that didn't work, they tried to bend Hamas to their own will. With support from the people in Gaza because of the many humanitarian projects they engaged in, Hamas became even more defiant. These are the roots of the current conflict, and with this view he draws his own conclusions about what ought to be done now.

An interesting point of view, and certainly worth reading whether you agree or not.

Onward Ho?

Israel is still debating whether or not to continue on with the third stage of their plan, which would include further incursions into major strategic points in Gaza. Diplomats involved in the discussions are working closely with Egypt to find another way to assuage Israeli strategic concerns, thereby founding a cease fire.

The strategic concern centers on the Philadelphi route, a point on the Gaza-Egypt border Hamas has been smuggling weapons through. Egypt says they have destroyed many tunnels already and that the long range missiles may be coming to Gaza by sea. Diplomats are looking at ways to deal with that scenario as well.

My guess is that Israel's concerns about its own defense will not be quelled in the near-term. There seem to be too many variables, a lack of transparency and an inability to monitor the area effectively enough to appease Israel. Israel will likely move on with phase three.

Two Wrongs

An AP report seems to back the notion that militants were firing on Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) from within the UN school that came under attack yesterday. Unfortunately, this means little to the conscience when the aftermath is this gruesome.

My mind is entirely lost somewhere in the equation of wrongs equaling rights at this point. And it doesn't help that I just watched Full Metal Jacket for the first time in my adult life the other day.

Department of State

The State Department's daily press brief focused on Gaza again.

So the U.S. State Department doesn't want Israel to stop unless they know the rockets from Gaza will stop and they can begin a political dialog. The best way to stop the rockets is to let Israel continue the ground campaign and wear Gaza out, at which point a political remedy can be worked out.

The problem with this is, if the world's strongest power, by definition a requisite mediator in an international humanitarian crisis, stands by idly (which perhaps is a complicit sort of support), the Palestinians are never going to come to the table. The other side will be further marginalized, much of the population radicalized. If the Israelis are using cluster bombs and depleted uranium -- war crimes -- we will have a severely weakened ability to negotiate later on.

Hamas may be spent, their threat perhaps extinguished, but that will mean almost nothing for lasting peace, or what McCormack keeps calling a "sustained, durable" solution.

First of the Year

The State Department held its first daily press briefing of the new year earlier this morning.

Not surprisingly, Gaza was at the top of State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack's brief. McCormack expressed concern with finding what he called a "sustainable, durable cease fire." "Of course everybody would like to see violence end immediately, but you also don't want it to end so that it recurs again in the same, if not, worse fashion in the future," he said.

McCormack highlighted three pillars of what the department sees as necessary for such a resolution; an end to the Gazan rockets, the opening of crossings into and out of the strip, "and also," he said, "the issue of the tunnels would be addressed," whatever the hell that means.

McCormack sees an opportunity to build negotiations with regards to the crossings upon the 2005 Movement and Access Agreement, a previous agreement to which the Palestinians (before Hamas came to power) and the Israelis were signatories.

When asked if Mr. McCormack would call the humanitarian situation a crisis, he opted for a slightly more ambiguous adjective.

"Well, the humanitarian situation is dire," he said. "I don't want to rehash for you all the reasons behind that, but they have primarily to do with Hamas and their management of the situation there." (Which is odd. I thought the stray Israeli bullets and missiles would prove a more pressing humanitarian concern at the moment.)

When asked if getting to a more immediate cease fire was more important in the short term, from which point something more lasting could be built, McCormack slyly placed one hand over his mouth to itch his upper lip and made a "KKsshhHH, SHkkkhh," noise, then said "I'm sorry, I think your microphone is getting some feedback. Someone please check that out. Next question."

Cutting through the obtuseness of his language, McCormack basically said that Gaza made a decision to increase rocket fire, which provoked Israel to come with full force, a sort of "final solution," if you will. Not in so many words, he said the State Department thinks the best shot at reaching an agreement is to allow the Israelis to continue their campaign until Hamas loses all power or is ready to surrender. "Look, Hamas made a calculation to provoke this - provoke the crisis," he said (oops, I bet he didn't mean to say crisis). "They can make - you know, they can make the opposite calculation."

When asked directly, was it a good idea for Israel to go in with ground forces, all McCormack would say is "Look, I'm not going to comment on that . . . every sovereign state needs to decide for itself how best to defend itself."

Thats basically a pass, right? Couldn't Russia have been said to be making a sovereign decision to defend herself in August? We did veto a U.N. cease fire and statement condemning Israel's actions.

Heres a tasty little exchange from the briefing:

QUESTION: Is it fair for us to conclude, though, that from this statement that the United States supports the Israeli decision to move from the aerial bombardment to a ground invasion?
MR. MCCORMACK: Well, this is – you know, this is a question that always comes up. We don’t give green lights, red lights, yellow lights. I think you heard from the Vice President they’re – they didn’t seek our permission or advice, and we didn’t seek to offer any of that. As I – as I said --
QUESTION: You know, that’s not – that’s just manifestly not true.
MR. MCCORMACK: As I – yes, it is.
QUESTION: No, no – maybe in – maybe in this, but all over the world you are involved in giving green lights, red l lights and yellow lights. I remember when –
MR. MCCORMACK: Am I talking --
QUESTION: -- when Musharraf --
MR. MCCORMACK: Am I talking about anywhere else in the world, Matt? Am I talking about a specific circumstance?

You can watch a video of the briefing, or read the transcript here.