White Smoke

The UN is accusing Israel of illegal use of phosphorous munitions, saying such bombs hit their facility today. In the facility were thousands of tons of food and medicine aid.

Human Rights Watch says it has witnessed "dozens and dozens" of such bombs used in heavily civilian-populated areas.

The Israeli army says it uses all weapons legally.

The BBC put it guardedly, saying "there is no way independently to explain the contradiction between both sides' reports, as Israel has prevented international journalists from entering Gaza since its offensive began."

On Day One

Obama told USA Today that he plans, "on day one," to appoint a special team of diplomats to tackle the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Obama acknowledged the issue is interwoven into the politics of the entire Middle East, signaling a departure from Bush's strategy, which tended to isolate the issue.

More Talk

Diplomatic efforts to end the war in Gaza have intensified yet again, but I'd put my money on Israel stopping whenever she feels ready.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon is in the West Bank, Israeli Defense Minister Tzivi Lipni is in Washington, and new Arab leadership meetings are being held in Kuwait and Qatar.

Egyptian and Saudi Arabian officials declined the Doha, Qatar talks and are headed to Kuwait -- a sign of a major rift in the Arab world, say some.

The leadership in Doha recognizes Palestinian political factions Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), whereas Egypt, Saudi Arabia (both meeting in Kuwait) and Western nations have sidelined such factions in cease fire talks, seeking to delegitimize the groups. The former want to condemn Israel, show solidarity with Palestine and keep the US and the West out of the Middle East; the latter seek to find a so-called moderate solution and keep Iran -- Hamas' main sponsor -- out of their region.

Concrete Jungle

Israel pushed deep into the heart of Gaza City today, hitting a UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) building where hundreds were taking shelter, though only three were confirmed injured.  Also hit was a foreign press office and a hospital.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert expressed regret, but told reporters that a Hamas militant fired from beside the compound and then ran in for cover.  Ban Ki-Moon, however, said Defense Minister Ehud Barack told him the shelling of the compound was a "grave mistake."  Ban is "outraged" at Israel.  

UNRWA officials told the NY Times the IDF were given GPS coordinates for all UN buildings.  

The heavy urban raids come as negotiations in Egypt are stepping up, reports just about every major paper (FT), but they have also described the peace talks as "stepping up" every day of this conflict.  

In the midst of the aggression, the European Commission has canceled plans to increase economic and diplomatic relations with Israel.   

Abdullah

Suadi Arabian King Abdullah supports the Egyptian peace talks and urged both sides to come to the table to stop the fighting. Meanwhile, reports the Arab News, cemeteries in Gaza are increasingly over-filling with nowhere to bury the newly dead.

A US ship carrying ammunitions from a Greek port to a US warehouse in Israel was canceled after Athens objected to the arrangement, in place before the war in Gaza, says the Pentagon.

Towards Gaza City

Israel continues to push further into Gaza City. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon arrived today, though diplomatic efforts to reach a cease fire still seem slow to come. Previous attempts at an Egyptian-led cease fire proposal were side-lined by bickering within Hamas, reports the NY Times, where Gazan Hamas officials wanted a cease fire but saw opposition from their Syrian counterparts.

Support for the effort runs high in Israel, where 10 soldiers and three civilians were killed by Hamas rocket fire. The Palestinian death toll stands just below 1,000.

All the while, Israel says that after two weeks of heavy bombardment, their main objectives remain unfulfilled.

Osama bin Laden released a voice recording calling for jihad against Israel, his first such recording since May.

Phase 3

Israeli air strikes intensified as ground troops pushed into the suburbs of Gaza City, reports the BBC, and Hamas rocket fire into Israel continues.  

PA President Mahmoud Abbas decried Israel for attempting to "wipe out" his people.  The PA used to hold power in Gaza before elections in 2006 put Hamas in power, and many predicted the outcome of the current conflict would put Abbas's PA back in power there.  

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon is headed to Gaza to push for an immediate truce.    

Thus Spoke Walt

For a nice sampling of a variety of viewpoints on the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, with all its vitriol, see famed co-author of The Israel Lobby and professor of International Relations at Harvard University Stephen Walt's recent blog on ForeignPolicy.com, in which he imagines a different outcome of the Six Day War, and all of the comments that follow.  

Inexcusable

Some very dim-witted Frenchmen attacked a synagogue north of Paris over the weekend.  The attackers threw "petrol bombs" into the synagogue, reports the BBC, a week after a similar attack on another French synagogue.  

The protests starkly illustrate a strain of anti-semitism that blinds some protesters to the realities of the international system.  Diasporan Jews have about as much to do with Israeli foreign policy as I do with American foreign policy.  Attacking a French synagogue because of Israeli actions in the Gaza strip is nothing if not blatantly racist.  I imagine if any westerner were to attack a mosque because of the act of a Muslim terrorist, they would be deemed racist and condemned, rightfully, by all parties involved.  

Protesting in the streets of cities across the world allows one's voice to be heard, and though it may seem ineffective, it is far more justifiable and relevant to their cause than violent attacks aimed at unaffiliated parties -- as unjustifiable as Katyusha rockets into Israel or Israeli cluster bombs in Gaza city.   

Op-Ed

Here's an op-ed in US News & World Report arguing why the military strike in Gaza may be counterproductive to Israeli interests.  It explains more explicitly a statement made in an earlier post by Norman's International regarding the effect the strike will have once a cease fire is reached and it's time to come to the negotiating table.  

In sum, ". . . the consequence is not the pacification of the target population but an intensification of violence."

Or, maybe not.  Here's an Op-Ed that says, while unfortunate, there is literally no other option --Israel must respond with overwhelming force if anything is to change; if Israel is to continue existing, something has to change.  

The Beat Goes On

Showing the impotency of the institution, the U.N.'s declared cease fire was ignored by both sides of the conflict in Gaza today.  Israel continued on with a fresh wave of aerial bombardments and Hamas continued firing rockets into southern Israel.  

Questions of war crimes on Israel's part were raised in the U.N. on account of an International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reporting that claims IDF forces ignored the emergency medical needs for civilians required by international law.  In perhaps the only good news to come from the discourse, the U.N. has demanded human rights monitors be deployed to the area to monitor the situation.  

Israel continued it's brief window of calm to let in aid this morning, during which time Hamas fired an undetermined number of rockets into Israel, who returned fire.  

14 of the 15 U.N. security members signed on to the cease fire demands, with one abstaining.  You guessed it -- the United States.  

This Just In

Here's an article sent along by Bryan Fenster.  In that inimitable way they do, the Economist breaks down in clear-sighted prose the historical context of the incidents in Gaza right now, and how it fits into the general narrative.  An excellent read.  

Shit! part 2

Heres a BBC rundown on the rockets.  Hizbullah, they say, has a much more powerful arsenal to attack with than the rockets that were fired, and would likely have used them if they wanted to stage another theater to the north. Also a factor is Hizbullah's political situation; now a bona fide partner in Lebanese government, they likely would not want to jeopardize that status.  

But, the BBC says, "not a leaf can move in southern Lebanon without its people knowing about it."  Perhaps they were complicit, were their finger not on the trigger.    

The BBC also points out the ease with which just about any small extremist group could smuggle missiles into and fire from southern Lebanon.  There are 400,000 Palestinian refugees in the area who claim Israel as their homeland.  

In the Strip

Israel continues to push further into Gaza, apparently seeking to cut off the strategic Rafah crossing into Egypt, while the humanitarian situation becomes increasingly desperate. The Gaza offensive following an 18-month Israeli-enforced blockade of the strip, basic supplies were low for Gazan citizens going into the conflict.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, for his part, is asking Syria to apply pressure on Hamas to stop rocket fire into Israel.

Staunch Palestinian supporter Saudi Arabia denounced the international communities silent acceptance of the Israeli offensive. They echoed a long narrative of Israel as an imperial force for conquest in the region, and see this as another move in that direction. They called for a pan-Arab unity among the various factions and sects of Muslims and Arabs in the region to defend Palestine.

First of the Year

The State Department held its first daily press briefing of the new year earlier this morning.

Not surprisingly, Gaza was at the top of State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack's brief. McCormack expressed concern with finding what he called a "sustainable, durable cease fire." "Of course everybody would like to see violence end immediately, but you also don't want it to end so that it recurs again in the same, if not, worse fashion in the future," he said.

McCormack highlighted three pillars of what the department sees as necessary for such a resolution; an end to the Gazan rockets, the opening of crossings into and out of the strip, "and also," he said, "the issue of the tunnels would be addressed," whatever the hell that means.

McCormack sees an opportunity to build negotiations with regards to the crossings upon the 2005 Movement and Access Agreement, a previous agreement to which the Palestinians (before Hamas came to power) and the Israelis were signatories.

When asked if Mr. McCormack would call the humanitarian situation a crisis, he opted for a slightly more ambiguous adjective.

"Well, the humanitarian situation is dire," he said. "I don't want to rehash for you all the reasons behind that, but they have primarily to do with Hamas and their management of the situation there." (Which is odd. I thought the stray Israeli bullets and missiles would prove a more pressing humanitarian concern at the moment.)

When asked if getting to a more immediate cease fire was more important in the short term, from which point something more lasting could be built, McCormack slyly placed one hand over his mouth to itch his upper lip and made a "KKsshhHH, SHkkkhh," noise, then said "I'm sorry, I think your microphone is getting some feedback. Someone please check that out. Next question."

Cutting through the obtuseness of his language, McCormack basically said that Gaza made a decision to increase rocket fire, which provoked Israel to come with full force, a sort of "final solution," if you will. Not in so many words, he said the State Department thinks the best shot at reaching an agreement is to allow the Israelis to continue their campaign until Hamas loses all power or is ready to surrender. "Look, Hamas made a calculation to provoke this - provoke the crisis," he said (oops, I bet he didn't mean to say crisis). "They can make - you know, they can make the opposite calculation."

When asked directly, was it a good idea for Israel to go in with ground forces, all McCormack would say is "Look, I'm not going to comment on that . . . every sovereign state needs to decide for itself how best to defend itself."

Thats basically a pass, right? Couldn't Russia have been said to be making a sovereign decision to defend herself in August? We did veto a U.N. cease fire and statement condemning Israel's actions.

Heres a tasty little exchange from the briefing:

QUESTION: Is it fair for us to conclude, though, that from this statement that the United States supports the Israeli decision to move from the aerial bombardment to a ground invasion?
MR. MCCORMACK: Well, this is – you know, this is a question that always comes up. We don’t give green lights, red lights, yellow lights. I think you heard from the Vice President they’re – they didn’t seek our permission or advice, and we didn’t seek to offer any of that. As I – as I said --
QUESTION: You know, that’s not – that’s just manifestly not true.
MR. MCCORMACK: As I – yes, it is.
QUESTION: No, no – maybe in – maybe in this, but all over the world you are involved in giving green lights, red l lights and yellow lights. I remember when –
MR. MCCORMACK: Am I talking --
QUESTION: -- when Musharraf --
MR. MCCORMACK: Am I talking about anywhere else in the world, Matt? Am I talking about a specific circumstance?

You can watch a video of the briefing, or read the transcript here.

Saudi Fundraiser

Meanwhile, the Sauds are raising funds for humanitarian efforts in Gaza.

Meanwhile, In Gaza . . .

NY Times reports today that while the death toll has passed 500, the civilian total is around 100. I don't know if a civilian death toll of 100 is ever good news, but at least it's less than what popular wisdom has seemed to suggest.

Though resisting pleas for a cease-fire, Israel did seize rocket launching sites in the strip, which presumably may signal some end in sight.

But then again, maybe not. Israeli defense minister Ehud Barack defined Israel's objective to Israeli Radio as “(changing) the reality of security for the south” of the country, which he said has not yet been accomplished. With objectives as abstract as that, Israel may allow itself to do whatever it wants.

Israel needs to define clearer objectives to put forth for the international community, and then pursue those objectives narrowly defined (secure all rocket launching sites, apprehend specific Hamas officials, perhaps?), if they want to save any face they may or may not still have to save.