More on Iran

Heres a short blurb from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) about how involved Iran is and what the broader implications of the current conflict may mean.  

Obviously, a "loss" for Israel and "win" for Hamas would bolster Iran and make its meddling more aggressive, while a "win" for Israel may make Iran rethink its strategy.  Missing, however, is how we would define a loss and a win from either side.  

Shit! part 2

Heres a BBC rundown on the rockets.  Hizbullah, they say, has a much more powerful arsenal to attack with than the rockets that were fired, and would likely have used them if they wanted to stage another theater to the north. Also a factor is Hizbullah's political situation; now a bona fide partner in Lebanese government, they likely would not want to jeopardize that status.  

But, the BBC says, "not a leaf can move in southern Lebanon without its people knowing about it."  Perhaps they were complicit, were their finger not on the trigger.    

The BBC also points out the ease with which just about any small extremist group could smuggle missiles into and fire from southern Lebanon.  There are 400,000 Palestinian refugees in the area who claim Israel as their homeland.  

Shit!

Three rockets were fired into Israel from Lebanon in the north.  Israel responded with five mortar shells.  

This comes after Lebanese Information Minister Tarek Mitri told reporters the other day he did not think Hizbullah would fire at this time.  

He did say that Hizbullah was not involved and some in Israeli intelligence believe it is the work of Palestinian groups in the region.  Border patrols have been stepped up by UN, Israeli and Lebanese forces.  

The Daily Star says that Hizbullah has more than 40,000 rockets "ready to be fired at Israel," should the situation escalate.  Some feel that Israel's mortar response could push Hizbullah -- whether they fired or not -- into a response.  

Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah sounded a defiant tone towards Israel and declared that "all options are on the table."

Despite the fierce talk, I don't foresee armed conflict between Israel and Hizbullah right now. The situation in Gaza is probably weakening Israeli forces to a far weaker extent than would prevent them from leveling southern Lebanon should the need arise, and Hizbullah and Lebanon in general probably know this.  

Lebanon

Lebanon's Parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri, speaking with diplomats in France today, said that he is confident Hizbullah does not want a piece of Israel right now, so to speak. Fresh in their memory, says Lebanon's Daily Star, was the 2006 Israeli reaction to cross border rockets; "1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers, dead," says the Daily Star.

Information Minister Tarek Mitri did warn that the longer the conflict continues the more "hearts and minds" in the Arab world may be won over for the Palestinian plight, to the point - possibly - of reaction.