Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Onward Ho?

Israel is still debating whether or not to continue on with the third stage of their plan, which would include further incursions into major strategic points in Gaza. Diplomats involved in the discussions are working closely with Egypt to find another way to assuage Israeli strategic concerns, thereby founding a cease fire.

The strategic concern centers on the Philadelphi route, a point on the Gaza-Egypt border Hamas has been smuggling weapons through. Egypt says they have destroyed many tunnels already and that the long range missiles may be coming to Gaza by sea. Diplomats are looking at ways to deal with that scenario as well.

My guess is that Israel's concerns about its own defense will not be quelled in the near-term. There seem to be too many variables, a lack of transparency and an inability to monitor the area effectively enough to appease Israel. Israel will likely move on with phase three.

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