Intercepted

A package marked "tractor parts" traveling from Iran to Venezuela was intercepted by Turkish customs officials and found to contain lab equipment capable of generating explosives.  

There were no traces of radioactive materials, but an investigation is under way, say officials in Turkey.  

In Ghana

John Atta Mills was sworn into office today as Ghana's new president.  John Mahama is his vice president.  

Oops

Pakistani National Security Adviser Mahmood Ali Durrani was fired today for telling reporters that the sole surviving Mumbai attacker, Mohammed Ajmal Kasab, was Pakistani.  Oops.  

A spokesman for Prime Minister Gilani said he was fired for speaking on national security issues without the Prime Minister's approval, though many think the government was looking for a reason to rid themselves of the pro-American adviser.  

Many see this as a sign of the shaky and tenuous nature of governance in Pakistan.  

Perhaps the real story here is Durrani's eyebrows.  Eyebrow.  Look at that thing!

Out in the Cold

Serbs and Bosnians are facing the brunt of the European gas shortages brought on by the Russia-Ukraine spat with "a mix of incomprehension, anger and stoicism," reports RFE/RL.

Bolivarian Revolution, Please Hold

Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez has had to curtail government spending by declining oil prices, threatening the socialist model that nation is built upon and his position as a political and philanthropic leader in the region.  

The Miami Herald reported this morning that the first to go was Chavez's program that supplied free heating oil to poor people in the United States, but quickly changed the story after the Washington Post said that Chavez will continue the program, which supplies fuel to 200,000 American households in 26 states and 65 Native American tribes.  

Cutting domestic spending on Venezuela's poor would be disastrous for Chavez's political career; a referendum is around the corner to lift term limits on his presidency, he trails by 20 points in polls and his base of support is the poor.  

Next on the chopping block may be the subsidized and heavily discounted oil Venezuela sells to poor nations in the region.   

"Chavez's meddling (in foreign affairs) will certainly be a lot less effective in 2009," said former Bolivian President Jorge Quiroga.  

Change Gon' Come

Like some rich white folks locking the entrance to a gated suburban community, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has decided to beef up civilian and perhaps military defenses along the U.S.-Mexico border to guard against the violence stemming from the drug economy from spreading north.  

Officials at the DHS said the operations call for aircraft, armored vehicles and special teams, and if unable to be quelled by civilian units like border patrol and local law enforcement, the military may -- though not likely -- be called in for assistance.  

Napolitano is heading the Obama administration's HSD; it's been a long time comin', but I know a change gon' come.  

Down and Out

Mexican President Felipe Calderon announced plans to inject nearly $150 million to ailing industries in an effort to save jobs.  The move is part of a larger '25-point' plan that includes freezing gas prices and increased unemployment benefits, reports the BBC.  

Because 80% of Mexican exports go to America, and the dependence of many communities on remittances from Mexican laborers in the United States, the economic downturn here has had dramatic implications there.  

Plans for infrastructure building are expected to create another quarter-million jobs later in the year.    

AARRRrrrrr!

The U.S. Navy has announced plans to head a new anti-pirate unit in the pirate-stricken Somalia coastal waters.  More than 20 nations will contribute to the operation, slated to being later this month, reports the BBC.

Last year saw more than 100 pirate attacks.  The area targeted by the new force, larger than the Mediterranean, consists of a 480-mile-long shipping lane.  A navy spokeswoman said effective patrolling will require 60 warships.  

Ongoing

Spokesmen from India have declared that the lone surviving member of the Mumbai attack is Pakistani citizen, specifically from a small town near Okara.  Pakistan still rejects the claims, demanding more evidence. At the same time, Pakistan and its ISI say they have launched their own investigation.  

Sri Lanka at War

In a battle a quarter century old, Sri Lankan forces have gained further ground in pushing back against the rebel Tamil Tigers today after taking the Tiger's declared capital city last Friday.  

The Tamils are a militant group of minority Hindus in the majority Singhalese Buddhist country Sri Lanka. The Tigers have been fighting for an independent homeland through terrorist tactics over the past few decades.  "Tens of thousands of people have been killed since the Tamil Tigers started fighting government forces in the 1980's, seeking a separate homeland for ethnic Tamils," reports Al-Jazeera.  

Failed State Blues

With unemployment near 80% and an inflation rate a surreal 231,000,000% (!!), Zimbabwe has unofficially dollarised, that is, taken a foreign currency as its de facto currency.  Citizens have abandoned the Zimbabwean currency and are widely using U.S. and South African currencies to make everyday purchases.  

The government refuses to acknowledge the extent of the problem, claiming their own currency as still the law of the land.  Some say that dollarisation is a bigger threat to sovereignty than re-colonization given how important money is to a nation's identity.  

To make it official would require an okay by the U.S., which is unlikely.  Zimbabwe is in talks with South Africa to help extend their currency, the rand, into the area and save the economy.  

One of South Africa's negotiating demands is that Mugabe agree to a legit power-sharing deal, which has as yet proved futile.  I suggest they refuse to prop up the economy unless Mugabe unequivocally steps down.   

N. Korea

North Korea announced plans for their first parliamentary elections in six years on March 8.  The elections are true North Korean style -- one candidate, chosen by 'supreme leaders,' will run for each seat unopposed.  

Clearly a charade, some suggest it may be an effort to reorganize the government in the wake of the ailing health of leader Kim Jong-il.  Elections are regularly held every five years but were postponed last year to do Kim's ailing health.  His current physical status is unconfirmed in the international community.  

Some see in the coming changes a nascent movement towards economic liberalization, though slow the movement may be.   

China-Hong Kong Colabo

Hong Kong and their neighboring province of mainland China have began talks of a first-time economic cooperation plan, reports the South China Morning Post.  They also charge a subscription fee, so that's about all I know about the deal.  

Egyptian Influence

An editorial in the Egyptian online weekly Al Ahram questions whether Egypt, so pivotal a player in Middle East negotiations, is up to the diplomatic challenges their now facing.  With hawkish elements in the U.S. and Israeli administrations and the growing influence of Iran thwarting attempts at peace throughout the past year, they question Egypt's role in the region.

Is this an 'Iranian era' of strength building?  And is Egypt less relevent?  The article ends in the negative.  "The answer is a definite no.  When all is said and done, Egypt is still a crucial player in the Arab world," they conclude.     

No Money, Mo' Problems

In the first sign of the global financial crisis in the Gulf region, one of Kuwait's largest investment firms -- Global Investment House -- has defaulted on most of its loans.  The bank is seeking to renegotiate many of their loans.  

The bank was financed by loans from many foreign creditors, much of which has, obviously, dried up in the past year.  

Some see this as a major predictor for Gulf banking in the coming year.  

More on Iran

Heres a short blurb from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) about how involved Iran is and what the broader implications of the current conflict may mean.  

Obviously, a "loss" for Israel and "win" for Hamas would bolster Iran and make its meddling more aggressive, while a "win" for Israel may make Iran rethink its strategy.  Missing, however, is how we would define a loss and a win from either side.  

Iran into the Conflict

This guy over at Haaretz says that Iran is behind the rockets from the north of Israel, which is probably true.  He also says Hizbullah (funded by Iran) was in on it as well.   

This Just In

Here's an article sent along by Bryan Fenster.  In that inimitable way they do, the Economist breaks down in clear-sighted prose the historical context of the incidents in Gaza right now, and how it fits into the general narrative.  An excellent read.  

PA

The future of the PA is uncertain as Abbas' term nears its end.  Some say it is likely he will remain at the helm until elections can be held.  It is uncertain whether his more moderate Fatah party will retain power -- making negotiations with the West more likely -- or whether a Hamas candidate may win popular support.  

. . . part 3

The NY Times is painting a pretty grim portrait.  UN Food Relief has ended deliveries into Gaza after the death of (another) food-truck driver, claiming the most minimum requisite security is not there.  All the while, peace negotiations seem to be deadlocked, though the UN Security Council may be close to a cease fire resolution sponsored by many Arab states -- albeit one that may make a US veto likely.     

Shit! part 2

Heres a BBC rundown on the rockets.  Hizbullah, they say, has a much more powerful arsenal to attack with than the rockets that were fired, and would likely have used them if they wanted to stage another theater to the north. Also a factor is Hizbullah's political situation; now a bona fide partner in Lebanese government, they likely would not want to jeopardize that status.  

But, the BBC says, "not a leaf can move in southern Lebanon without its people knowing about it."  Perhaps they were complicit, were their finger not on the trigger.    

The BBC also points out the ease with which just about any small extremist group could smuggle missiles into and fire from southern Lebanon.  There are 400,000 Palestinian refugees in the area who claim Israel as their homeland.  

Shit!

Three rockets were fired into Israel from Lebanon in the north.  Israel responded with five mortar shells.  

This comes after Lebanese Information Minister Tarek Mitri told reporters the other day he did not think Hizbullah would fire at this time.  

He did say that Hizbullah was not involved and some in Israeli intelligence believe it is the work of Palestinian groups in the region.  Border patrols have been stepped up by UN, Israeli and Lebanese forces.  

The Daily Star says that Hizbullah has more than 40,000 rockets "ready to be fired at Israel," should the situation escalate.  Some feel that Israel's mortar response could push Hizbullah -- whether they fired or not -- into a response.  

Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah sounded a defiant tone towards Israel and declared that "all options are on the table."

Despite the fierce talk, I don't foresee armed conflict between Israel and Hizbullah right now. The situation in Gaza is probably weakening Israeli forces to a far weaker extent than would prevent them from leveling southern Lebanon should the need arise, and Hizbullah and Lebanon in general probably know this.  

European Sentiments

The CS Monitor reports that pro-Arab sentiment throughout Europe, once dominated by French diplomacy, is dwindling.  

Support for the Palestinian plight, once seen as a struggle for independence and a right of return, is now seen in "shallower emotional and humanitarian grounds . . . forgetting the old issues of substance and Israeli occupation," said one European diplomat.  

Among other factors, many contribute the decline to the friction caused throughout much of Europe in the past decade or so brought on by abrupt increases of Arab and Muslim immigration into Europe, as well as a reaction to 9/11.  

Some are rehashing the "Clash of Civilizations" theory put out by Samuel Huntington, as if this were an inevitability. For those unschooled, please read Huntington's 1993 Foreign Affairs article "The Clash of Civilizations."

I think the thing to remember is that there are moderate groups and extreme groups in every civilization, and there is a fundamental common humanity that need not clash; this is the basis of diplomacy.  

Anyway, read the CSM article, an excellent piece on the worldview of Gaza.