Thus Spoke Walt

For a nice sampling of a variety of viewpoints on the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, with all its vitriol, see famed co-author of The Israel Lobby and professor of International Relations at Harvard University Stephen Walt's recent blog on ForeignPolicy.com, in which he imagines a different outcome of the Six Day War, and all of the comments that follow.  

Iran Frontin'

Iran makes extensive use of fraudulent front companies to purchase electronics for weapons parts in the U.S. for explosives in Iraq and elsewhere against U.S. troops, reports the Washington Post.

The article outlines a cat and mouse game where, like mutating bacteria in their arms race to circumvent antibiotics, Iran has adapted to U.S. enforcement against illegal electronics and weapon sales, continuing to buy extensively from the U.S.  The findings come from new reports released by the Justice Department and an independent Washington research institute.  

The findings paint a picture of a network increasingly internet-based and more sophisticated, where U.S. suppliers often have no idea who their end-users are and unwittingly sell to Iranian interests.  

Read all about it here.

Driving Mr. Bin Laden

After serving his prison term out in Yemen after release from Guantanamo, Osama Bin Laden's former driver Salim Hamdan was released last week after signing a pledge not to commit violent acts, reports the NY Times.

Mauritania

The military junta that took control from the democratically-elected leadership in Mauritania last August announced it will hold elections by June of this year.  Some see the intense international pressure on the junta to restore democracy to the country as responsible for the recent decision.     

Inexcusable

Some very dim-witted Frenchmen attacked a synagogue north of Paris over the weekend.  The attackers threw "petrol bombs" into the synagogue, reports the BBC, a week after a similar attack on another French synagogue.  

The protests starkly illustrate a strain of anti-semitism that blinds some protesters to the realities of the international system.  Diasporan Jews have about as much to do with Israeli foreign policy as I do with American foreign policy.  Attacking a French synagogue because of Israeli actions in the Gaza strip is nothing if not blatantly racist.  I imagine if any westerner were to attack a mosque because of the act of a Muslim terrorist, they would be deemed racist and condemned, rightfully, by all parties involved.  

Protesting in the streets of cities across the world allows one's voice to be heard, and though it may seem ineffective, it is far more justifiable and relevant to their cause than violent attacks aimed at unaffiliated parties -- as unjustifiable as Katyusha rockets into Israel or Israeli cluster bombs in Gaza city.   

Comrades to the End

Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez spoke with a fondness for Fidel Castro in a television and radio address yesterday, but said he believes it is unlikely his old comrade will ever appear in public again.  

Castro underwent emergency intestinal surgery two and a half years ago and has rarely appeared in public since.  

Chavez did not comment on Castro's health.  

China & Venezuela, Sittin' in a Tree

Venezuela took control of a $400-million, Chinese-built communications satellite over the weekend.  China built the satellite under contract for Venezuela and launched it in October, reports the LA Times.  

Chavez said the satellite will allow Venezuela to overcome the U.S. "media bombardment" thereby strengthening Venezuelan sovereignty.  The satellite is also expected to bring internet connections to schools across Venezuela and improve the nations health industry via improved IT and medical record-keeping and communicating.   

Venezuela is also waiting on 18 military jet training aircraft this month it purchased from China.

Some see these deals, as well as increased Venezuelan oil buying on China's part, as both a sign of strengthening ties between China and Latin America and waning influence of the U.S. in the region.  

China has also invested in oil production projects in many parts of Venezuela where U.S. firms were booted from not long ago.  

Chavez critics say China is the main beneficiary in these trades and that with oil pricing waning Chavez will not be able to continue such arrangements for long.  

German Stimulus

German daily Deutsche Welle reports on German plans to inject close to $68 billion in government spending and infrastructure investment in the coming year. 

Government officials are meeting tomorrow to finalize the details, but it looks as if the plans will breach EU caps on government spending that seek to reduce borrowing.  According to Deutsche Welle:

"The Maastricht rules agreed when the euro was introduced require euro nations to limit net borrowing to no more than three percent of GDP.  The strict rules are meant to underpin the common currency and keep it stable."

German spending plans will equal about 3.5 percent of the nation's GDP this year and near 4.5 percent next year. 

Eastern Gas

The NY Times reports that a deal has been struck to resume gas supplies between Russia and Europe via Ukraine and to send European monitors to the area today. 

Russia says, barring any future obstacles, the pipes will open tomorrow morning.  Still, the agreement does not address the demand by Russia that Ukraine begin paying higher prices for gas close to market value.  

Russia has been selling the gas to the Ukraine at a discount to help that country develop, but now says Ukraine has reached a level of development that requires it pay near-market-value prices. Ukraine maintains this would bankrupt the country's fragile economy.

Obama-Calderon

As reported last week by Norman's International, President-elect Obama will meet with Mexican President Felipe Calderon today in his first meeting with a foreign leader since elected in November.  

Predictably enough, violent crime in Mexico, immigration, trade and the U.S.-Mexican border will be at the top of the agenda, reports the BBC.

HIV/AIDS Progress

A new report by the UN program that monitors and works to reduce AIDS and HIV worldwide, UNAID, has released a report indicating progress made on preventing new infections in sub-Saharan Africa.  

Good news indeed, but let us not forget that roughly two-thirds (percentage, Bryan?) of the world's HIV/AIDS-infected population exist on that continent.  

I have not read the report in its entirety, but you can do so here.  

Zuma

The South African Supreme Court overturned a previous ruling dismissing ANC leader Jacob Zuma of graft charges today.  This comes just months before elections in that country which Zuma declared he would be running in.  

Nonetheless, reports the Mail & Guardian, the decision may prove unlikely to stop him from being elected.  

The 18-Year Refugee Crisis You've Never Heard of

Here is a very interesting article on a refugee crisis most people are unfamiliar with.  

In the early 1990s in the tiny Himalayan nation Bhutan, the majority-supported Drukpa (a Buddhist sect) ruling elite began a campaign that purged the nation of it's minority Lhotsampas' -- people of Nepali origin that lived in the south of Bhutan.  That population, now near 107,000, have sat idly for the past 18 years in a group of UN refugee camps in the east of Nepal.  

This past year the U.S. and some other western nations declared they would offer resettlement to up to 60,000 of those refugees.  Chicago was a major destination for many of those participating in the resettlement program.  

I was fortunate enough to become friends with a young refugee now living in Chicago, along with his six-member immediate family, plus an extended family too numerous to count.  I did some reporting on the refugee situation and the resettlement process for a class that I hope to submit somewhere once I brush it up a little.  For those interested, here is a link to a very very rough draft of that continuing story.  

Like a Phoenix . . .

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao announced today his nation is likely to be the first to emerge from the world's financial sinkhole and anticipated new measures to bolster the Chinese economy in the next few months, reports China Daily.  

Key policies include tax and credit incentives to keep auto sales continuing and, in turn, auto manufacturers working.  

Chinese exports dropped in November for the first time in seven years.  

C.R.E.A.M.

Disputes over the history of WWII have crippled relations between Japan and South Korea in the past.  South Korea has accused Japan of rewriting history in national textbooks to ignore atrocities committed by Japan during the war.  

But as the great 20th-century political thinker Method Man once observed, "cash rules everything around me."  The economy has proven a remedy in putting that dispute aside as the two nations leaders met today to forge new economic relations to overcome the worldwide downturn.  

The two leaders discussed the future of their financial structures and vowed to work closely together in dealing with trade negotiations, both agreeing to broaden foreign investments.  

They also discussed their mutual commitments to dissuading North Korea from continuing nuclear plans.  

Kuwait

Kuwait swore in a new cabinet today.  You can read more about the swearing in ceremony at the Kuwait News Agency.  

Secrets

For those of you who missed this very interesting NY Times article yesterday, it appears that President Bush declined secret Israeli requests for bunker-busting bombs and permission to fly over Iraq for an attack on Iranian nuclear sites last year.  Bush told Israeli officials he had initiated covert operations on the ground aimed at dismantling Iranian nuclear ambitions from within and that an overt attack would not be necessary.  The report questions whether Israel had plans to carry out the attack or was seeking to engage Bush in more aggressive planning before he left office.  

Bush was continually briefed on the options for an overt American air strike on the Iranian nuclear targets but never told the Pentagon to move beyond contingency planning.  Some in the administration, led Defense Secretary Robert Gates, warned such an attack would be ineffective, likely result in the expulsion of international inspectors and possibly spark a broader Middle East war.  

The Israeli requests came after a National Intelligence Estimate (N.I.E.) from last year that painted a very calm picture of Iran's enrichment program and progress towards nuclear weapons manufacturing, but the report was viewed skeptically by almost everyone in the Bush administration and Israel.  

The covert operations, questions of their efficacy, questions of how they may or may not interfere with efforts to engage Iran in talks, as well as Israel's willingness to settle for such a plan will all be handed off to Barack Obama on the 20th, adding to an already staggering list of problems he will be confronting.  

The article is a fascinating read, one of those rare glimpses into the secret world of international negotiations and covert operations most often not revealed until decades after a conflict has cooled.  Certainly, check that out.  

As Ugly as Reality

Israel has slowed its air assault on Gaza overnight, though ground forces have been stepped up, reports the BBC.  Reserve forces have been sent into Gaza via ground.  While Prime Minister Ehud Olmert denies any increase in ground fighting, some reports claim reservists are being sent in to secure already won areas while front-line troops move further inward.  With no international reporters allowed on the ground, such reports can neither be confirmed nor denied. 

A military spokesman said that while reservists are being called in mostly to provide relief for engaged soldiers, this does not signal an escalation in ground fighting.  Forces in Israel continue training in the case of an expanded ground invasion.  

Olmert says Israel is nearing its goals in Gaza, and some claim an Egyptian-brokered cease fire is progressing, though we've heard this before.  

Meanwhile, the Washington Post seems to sound a more alarming note, saying that with the strong back-up from the reserve units, Israel is bracing for what may be the "fiercest fighting yet" as they push into the major population centers in the so-called "phase three" of the operation.  

Talks in Cairo hinge on Israeli calls for an Egyptian monitor at the Gaza-Egypt border to ensure that no more weapons are smuggled into Gaza -- a request which Egypt has so far balked at.  

An all-out push into Gaza City will mean increased death tolls and heavy destruction on both sides.  The question seems to be whether or not Israel should use the position they've gained in weakening Hamas to negotiate (yet another) cease fire, or should move to debilitate Hamas to such an extent they cannot fire rockets, if not wipe them out completely -- a question that Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barack, both of whom are vying to be the next PM, disagree on.  

In a strictly military-strategic perspective, as ugly as it may sound, I think their only option is to push ahead.  Any cease fire will prove as transient as any in the past.  True, the elimination of Hamas will by no means mean peace in the Middle East, but it will reduce Iranian influence in the area and restore a (perhaps only slightly) longer peace in the area from which to build. Israel's reputation is as bad as it will be -- a further offensive will probably not change that.  

One note to add -- if any traces of phosphorous munitions are found in an area like Gaza City, that will and ought to be the end of Israel's bargaining position.  UNHRC has already declared Israeli actions have "resulted in massive violations of human rights."